Prof. Chi-Tai Fang - R915 Molecular Bacteriology Laboratory : https://labspotlight.ntu.edu.tw/labs/75
Led by Professor Chi-Tai Fang from the Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine at the College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, a Taiwan-US collaborative research team has discovered the key to the successful prevention of M-pox in the United States: a powerful synergistic effect between vaccines and health education. These findings are expected to have broad applications for other infectious diseases preventable through vaccination and behavioral interventions, providing important insights for future strategies in emerging infectious disease control. The research results were published on January 5, 2024, in eClinicalMedicine: Part of The Lancet Discovery Science.
In May 2022, clusters of M-pox cases began to emerge in previously non-endemic areas such as the UK, followed by large-scale outbreaks in Europe and North America. The WHO declared a global epidemic alert on July 23 of the same year, categorizing M-pox as a new wave of "Public Health Emergency of International Concern" (PHEIC) following COVID-19. The predominant strain responsible for the 2022-2023 global outbreak was the new M-pox virus strain Clade IIb, which, although less virulent and lethal, exhibited strong human-to-human transmission capabilities, particularly through sexual contact and among males. Facing the M-pox outbreak crisis, the United States not only actively promoted timely vaccination but also engaged in community organizing and health education efforts to reduce risky behaviors among high-risk populations. However, after peaking in August 2022, the US epidemic declined and was brought under control, with the effectiveness of vaccines and health education remaining unclear.
To clarify the effectiveness of vaccines and health education in the prevention of M-pox in the United States, the research team constructed mathematical models to simulate M-pox transmission in the country. Based on the epidemic curve of M-pox cases in the US from May 22 to December 22, 2022, the team successfully estimated the preventive effects of two doses of vaccination and crisis awareness among high-risk populations. The results showed that the basic reproductive number (R0) of M-pox was 3.88 and 0.39 in high-risk and low-risk groups, respectively, with an estimated 71.8% of M-pox cases originating from high-risk populations. Without health education, only 21.2% (10.2%–24.1%) of cases could be prevented by the number of vaccine doses administered within a tight timeframe. Similarly, without vaccination, relying solely on health education-induced behavior changes among high-risk groups could only prevent 15.4% (14.3%–20.6%) of cases. However, in reality, the United States achieved a strong synergistic effect by simultaneously implementing both public health measures, preventing 64.0% (43.8%–69.0%) of cases and successfully controlling the M-pox epidemic.
The first author of this study, student Yin-Qian Lin, is a master's student in epidemiology and preventive medicine under the guidance of Professor Fang. Other members of the research team include Professor Sten H. Vermund from the Yale School of Public Health, Professor Tzai-Hung Wenfrom the Department of Geography at National Taiwan University, and Assistant Professor Wei-Liang, Shih from the Department of Health Promotion and Health Education at the Ministry of Health and Welfare and the National Taiwan University Center for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Research and Education. The study was supported by funding from the Ministry of Education's Higher Education Sprout Project for the National Taiwan University Group for Health and Welfare Research.
Research：https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(23)00584-9/fulltext
Prof. Fang's profile：https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/cris/rp/rp06639
流病預醫所方啓泰教授：https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/cris/rp/rp06639